Westminster Report

BY Mark Francois, Shadow Armed Forces Minister, MP for Rayleigh and Wickford.

We Can’t Let Putin Win in Ukraine.

As well as serving as your constituency MP, following last year’s General Election, I was appointed as the Shadow Minister for the Armed Forces, on the Opposition Front Bench, in the House of Commons.

In this role, of scrutinising the work of the Minister of Defence (MoD), I have been heavily involved in the debate about the future of Ukraine.

Last month, marked the third anniversary of Russia’s barbaric and illegal invasion of Ukraine, which comes at a time of immense geopolitical uncertainty. Yet, despite these challenges, it is crucial to recognise one fundamental truth:

Vladimir Putin has failed to achieve any of his key strategic objectives- thus far at least.

When Russian forces launched their full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, Putin and his inner circle believed Kyiv would fall within days. Russia’s vast military machine was expected to rapidly roll through Ukrainian defences and install a puppet regime, loyal to Moscow. Yet, the bravery of the Ukrainian people, coupled with inspired leadership, turned the tide. President Zelensky, when offered a chance to be safely evacuated from his capital, to escape the Russian advance now famously replied: “I don’t need a ride- I need ammunition!”

Fortunately, Britian had already been providing support, even before the invasion started. The then Conservative Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, played a pivotal role in ensuring that Ukraine’s forces were properly trained under Operation ORBITAL, so they could effectively use NLAWs (Next generation Light Anti-tank Weapon) and anti-tank tactics more widely, when the Russian invasion came.

This foresight was instrumental in the early defence of Kyiv, as waves of Russian tanks were obliterated by highly mobile Ukrainian defenders. These tactical advantages helped prevent the Russian army from achieving its initial objective, which was to overrun Kyiv and kill or capture President Zelensky in the process.

One of Putin’s primary justifications for the invasion was his desire to push back against NATO expansion. He framed the war as a defensive measure against Western encroachment, claiming that Ukraine’s growing ties with NATO threatened Russian security.

However, the reality has been starkly different. Rather than weakening NATO, Putin’s aggression has strengthened and expanded its European arm, at least.

Sweden and Finland, two historically neutral nations, have now joined the Alliance—a direct response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Their accession significantly strengthens NATO’s northern flank, creating additional strategic headaches for Moscow, especially in the Baltic. The very expansion he sought to prevent has now become a reality, at least in Scandanavia.

Moreover, since the invasion in 2022, the UK, in particular, has been at the forefront of military and financial aid to Ukraine. British military assistance has now exceeded £7 billion, while total Western aid to Ukraine has surpassed £200 billion. Britian’s contribution has included Storm Shadow and Brimstone Missiles, Challenger 2 main battle tanks, AS-90 Howitzers and a large amount of both small and large calibre ammunition.

Indeed, relative to the size of our Army, Britian has given more miliary kit to Ukraine than any other country, including the US. This unwavering support has ensured that Ukraine can continue resisting Russian aggression, further cementing the UK’s role as a leader in European security.

Yet, as we mark this anniversary, we must acknowledge growing concerns about the future of Western support.

This is where the UK and its NATO partners must tread carefully. While it is important to maintain strong transatlantic ties, we must also be prepared to make the case for continued military support to Ukraine, ensuring that any future negotiations do not come at the expense of the sovereignty Ukraine has so bravely fought for.

In short, the Ukrainians are now fighting for our freedom, too.

Linked to this, we must also gently remind Washington that the only time NATO’s Article 5 has ever been invoked was by the United States back in 2001, in response to the 9/11 attacks—and that within weeks UK Special Forces were fighting alongside their American allies hunting terrorists in the caves of Bora Bora.

President Trump, whatever your view of him, is clearly right to push European NATO nations to increase their Defence spending. The US spends approximately 3.5% of GDP on Defence (now north of $800 billion annually) whilst also seeking to deter China, including over Taiwan. So, not unnaturally, our American allies, seeing a number of NATO countries spending less than the current minimum of 2%, let alone 2.5%, expect us to collectively do more and we need to really understand this.

The Labour Government, to its credit, has recently announced its intention to increase the UK’s Defence budget to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, rising to 3%, “in the next Parliament.” The Conservatives, who believe that the threat is now more urgent, have recently gone further, saying that we should be spending at least 3% by 2029. Either way, we clearly need to strengthen our defences, to help deter further Russian aggression.

In summary, if we fail to hold the line now, we risk repeating the mistakes of history. Ukraine’s fight is our fight, and three years on, we must recommit ourselves to ensuring that Ukrainian democracy prevails over Russian dictatorship.

The world is becoming more dangerous, and Britain cannot afford to be caught unprepared.

Picture: Shadow Armed Forces Minister, Mark Francois MP, alongside Shadow Secretary of State for Defence, James Cartlidge MP and Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK, Valerii Zaluzhnyi.

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